First Post

My name is Paul, and I have escaped from the Box.

For the last 14 years I have lived in a small, insular, highly competitive community of over-achieving Techno-Nerds. Now, these days, this sort of thing is getting pretty common, but this is a special case. This community is the Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry. This is THE driving force behind all modern electronics. If I were to coin a tag line for the industry it would be something like "We make the tools that build the Information Age". Anything with semiconductors in it owes its existence to equipment and processes created by SCE companies. And these days, when people say "Technology", they mean stuff with semiconductors in it.

This is the Box.

The main thing that makes this business unusual, even in a world filled with Technology companies, is that it's a very arcane business for its size (hundreds of billions of dollars a year). Think software is arcane? Maybe, but I bet you know what it is, I bet you know what its for, I bet a lot of you even know how it works and can maybe even write your own code. Know what an HDP CVD tool is? Know what it does? Know how it works? Yet hundreds of millions of dollars worth of them are sold every year. I know this sounds arrogant, but that's not the intent. The point is that it's a technology removed by at least 3 layers from everyday experience. The SCE business is the equivalent in Technology to the molten core of the Earth - energetic and powerful, invisibly influencing everything at the surface, yet remote from daily experience.

But its exciting to live in the Molten Core of the Revolution. The technology is complex and multidisciplinary, the new stuff comes straight from the "bleeding edge" of technology, the industry is global and 24/7. The people in it are talented and driven; adrenaline junkies one and all. The Molten Core generates a lot of Energy that can be used to accomplish great things, unfortunately it also generates a lot of Heat that can burn you to a crisp.

I claim my SCE lineage proudly - membership in this Clan comes at no small cost; to your personal life, your health, sometimes your sanity. Business is ruthlessly competitive and violently cyclical (digital, in fact - on and off are the only states), product life cycles are "nasty, brutish and short", successes are few but immensely profitable, failures are common and immensely expensive. In down cycles you slave feverishly for every sale and to develop new products for the next up-turn. In the up-turn you work feverishly to keep up with the explosive growth, and to wring out the bugs in all the new products you developed in the down turn. Your job if you are a player is that of a slave who gets to share in the treasure. Your job if your are not a player is that of a slave who gets RIF'd in the downturn.

The Box is filled with Treasure. The Box is filled with Fire. They are the same. Yin and Yang... you can't have the One without the Other.

Heard of Moore's Law? Moore's Law is the living embodiment of the Semi Cap business. Moore's Law happens because a bunch of Engineers slaving away in some obscure SCE companies make it happen. Its not an accident, and its not a Law of Nature. Its a result of the combined efforts of a small cadre of people, innovation, competition and a LOT of really hard work.

Treasure + Fire = Innovation. Moore's Law is the fundamental product of the Box.

I've been in the Box 14 years... much longer if you count all the training for a life in the Box. By now I have my share of Treasure, I have my share of Burns. This last downturn was the largest and longest in industry history. It was Ugly. The upturn is here... but something has changed. Profitability is low (by industry standards) and the stock still sucks. Industry leaders talk of industry "maturity" and "slow-or-no-growth" scenarios. The SCC is talking about expensing options. And the next downturn is already looming...

The Box is broken. There is no Treasure, and for players and non-players alike there is now only Fire. If the Box is not fixed, it will be unable to sustain its output. Moore's Law is at risk; not because of Technology limitations, but Business limitations.

So... you cannot have that view and be successful in this industry. So I'm taking my treasure in the form of time - 6 month unpaid leave. The goal - to do all the things I've wanted to do for these 14 years but never had a chance. Like write Blogs that probably no-one outside of a few of my friends will ever read. Like starting a small business. Like hiking and cycling and generally getting back into shape before its too late. If life in the SCE business teaches you nothing else, it sure as hell teaches you the irreplaceable value of time. So I do it because I can; maybe I'll go back, maybe I won't. For the first time in over a decade, my time belongs only to me.

I have escaped from the Box.